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Newcomb, Simon, 1835-1909

"Side-Lights on Astronomy and Kindred Fields of Popular Science"


Now let us look at the subject from the view of the mathematical
theory of probabilities. A fundamental tenet of this theory is
that no matter how improbable a result may be on a single trial,
supposing it at all possible, it is sure to occur after a
sufficient number of trials--and over and over again if the trials
are repeated often enough. For example, if a million grains of
corn, of which a single one was red, were all placed in a pile,
and a blindfolded person were required to grope in the pile,
select a grain, and then put it back again, the chances would be a
million to one against his drawing out the red grain. If drawing
it meant he should die, a sensible person would give himself no
concern at having to draw the grain. The probability of his death
would not be so great as the actual probability that he will
really die within the next twenty-four hours. And yet if the whole
human race were required to run this chance, it is certain that
about fifteen hundred, or one out of a million, of the whole human
family would draw the red grain and meet his death.
Now apply this principle to the universe. Let us suppose, to fix
the ideas, that there are a hundred million worlds, but that the
chances are one thousand to one against any one of these taken at
random being fitted for the highest development of life or for the
evolution of reason.


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